Put IV Skew Signals Downside Risk as Q4 EPS Seen at $1.91
Newmont's stock has gained almost 21% YTD as analysts forecast Q4 EPS of $1.91 on $6.01B revenue, up from $1.40 and $5.65B year-over-year. Options IV skew signals prioritize downside protection, pricing expected one-standard-deviation moves between $110.79 and $130.46 for the Feb. 20 expiry.
1. Earnings Forecast and YTD Performance
Newmont's stock has rallied nearly 21% year-to-date as analysts project fourth-quarter earnings per share of $1.91 on revenue of $6.01 billion, compared with $1.40 and $5.65 billion in the prior year. This outlook sets high expectations ahead of the Feb. 19 report.
2. Options IV Skew Signals Downside Bias
Options market data show elevated implied volatility on put strikes relative to calls for the Feb. 20 expiration, indicating traders are hedging against potential downside moves rather than seeking upside gains.
3. Black-Scholes Expected Move Range
Applying the Black-Scholes model, the one-standard-deviation expected move for Feb. 20 places Newmont shares between $110.79 and $130.46, reflecting a 68% probability of trading within this band over the next ten days.
4. Momentum Patterns Under Markov Analysis
A nine-up, one-down weekly record over the last ten weeks suggests persistent upward momentum, implying that conditional probabilities based on recent trends could refine forecasts beyond simple statistical ranges.