Netflix Down 36% After Record 325M Subscribers as Ad Revenue Doubles
Netflix shares have plunged 36% from their mid-2025 peak despite record 325 million subscribers and ad revenue more than doubling to $1.5 billion in 2025. The proposed $82 billion Warner Bros. acquisition faces regulatory uncertainty, while a forward P/E of 26.6 suggests about 24% upside if earnings meet forecasts.
1. Senate Antitrust Hearing to Examine Netflix-Warner Transaction
The Senate Judiciary Committee’s antitrust subcommittee has scheduled a hearing next week to scrutinize Netflix’s proposed acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery’s film and television assets. Senators will question whether combining the two leading streaming libraries could harm competition, particularly in ad-supported tiers. Subcommittee Chair has indicated concerns over consolidation of premium content under one platform and whether future entry by competitors would be deterred if the deal proceeds.
2. All-Cash Bid and Shareholder Vote Set for April 2026
In December, Netflix revised its offer for Warner’s studios into an all-cash structure valued at approximately $83 billion, replacing the initial mix of stock and cash. Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders are slated to vote on the transaction by April 2026. Netflix management has secured agreements representing over 60 percent of outstanding shares in support of the deal, but final approval hinges on regulatory outcomes and the upcoming shareholder vote.
3. Q4 Results Highlight Subscriber Growth and Booming Ad Revenue
Netflix reported record Q4 membership of 325 million global subscribers, up 8 percent year-over-year, driven by higher take-up in Latin America and Southeast Asia. Advertising revenue more than doubled in 2025 to $1.5 billion, reflecting strong demand for inventory on hit series and expanded live sports rights. Management forecasts another doubling of ad revenues in 2026, pointing to continued margin expansion as advertising approaches 5 percent of total revenue.
4. Valuation, Earnings Outlook and Path to $1 Trillion
After a 36 percent decline from its mid-2025 high, Netflix trades at a forward P/E of 26.6 based on consensus 2026 EPS of $3.12, down from 33 on 2025’s $2.53. Market capitalization has fallen from roughly $400 billion to $365 billion. The company remains on track to hit its 16 percent revenue growth target for 2025 and is projecting double-digit subscriber gains in 2026. To reach a $1 trillion valuation by 2030, Netflix will need sustained ad-tier expansion, continued price realizations in mature markets, and successful integration of Warner’s content assets under favorable market conditions.