QIC sees RBA holding cash rate at 4.6% through year-end, flags February 2027 risk
TLT•QIC expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep its cash rate at 4.6% through the end of 2026, with February 2027 a potential risk if energy-driven inflation persists.
1. Rate outlook and risks
QIC expects the RBA to hold its cash rate at 4.6% through year-end despite headline inflation of 4% and underlying inflation of 3.6%. It cited sub-trend growth, a weakening labor market approaching 5% unemployment, a housing downturn and oil above $100 per barrel as factors in its outlook, and flagged February 2027 as the next meaningful risk to the rate setting if energy-driven inflation persists.
