Goldman Sachs Sets $135 Target, Flags 200-bp MediaTek Share Loss and 25% YTD Slide
Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of Qualcomm with a Neutral rating and $135 target, forecasting a 200-basis-point Android share loss to MediaTek by 2027 and headwinds from Apple’s in-house modems. Rising memory costs are expected to dampen smartphone demand—Qualcomm’s largest revenue source—and have driven a 25% stock drop this year.
1. Neutral Rating and Price Target
Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of Qualcomm with a Neutral rating and set a $135 price target, reflecting balanced risk and reward. The firm’s earnings estimates for fiscal years 2025 through 2028 sit about 3% above consensus, while the stock trades near 12x earnings, roughly two turns below its three-year median valuation.
2. Smartphone Market Headwinds
Qualcomm faces projected Android market share losses of approximately 200 basis points to MediaTek by 2027, alongside ongoing pressures from Apple’s in-house modem development. Rising memory costs are expected to further dampen smartphone demand, which remains the company’s largest revenue driver.
3. Diversification Strategy and Stock Performance
The company is leveraging its Snapdragon technology and licensing IP to expand into automotive, PC and data center markets. Despite these diversification efforts, core smartphone challenges have contributed to a roughly 25% decline in the stock year-to-date, underscoring investor concern over near-term revenue headwinds.