Quantum copper steals the show at LME Week
XLB•Copper dominated discussions at LME Week as global supply forecasts show surpluses, while metal stockpiles and demand remain sharply divided by region. Global exchange inventories topped 1.2 million metric tons, while Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks were 54,400 tons.
1. Copper divides markets
Around three-quarters of attendees at an LME seminar picked copper as the top-performing metal over the next 12 months; the share fell to around half when tin was included in a follow-up poll. The International Copper Study Group expects a global surplus of 104,000 metric tons this year and 368,000 tons next year, while global exchange inventories exceed 1.2 million tons, twice year-ago levels.
2. Metal concentrated in US
Uncertainty over possible US import tariffs has drawn metal into the country, leaving other markets short. Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories were 54,400 tons, and the Yangshan import premium reached a 13-year high of $168 per ton over the LME price. Mercuria research head Nicholas Snowdon described China’s copper market as the tightest he had seen in his career.
3. Policy shapes other metals
The article says US tariffs are also driving regional differences in aluminium premiums, while nickel prices depend on Indonesian policy and cobalt prices are being supported by export controls in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Harbor Aluminum founder Jorge Vazquez put the chance of a tariff reset on Canadian aluminium at as high as 75%; if it occurred, US premiums would fall and European premiums could nearly double to more than $1,000 per ton over the LME cash price.
