In the week leading up to the Jan. 8 earnings release, three of the most accurate SMPL analysts adjusted their full-year fiscal 2025 forecasts upward. Raymond James lifted its revenue estimate by 3.2% to $540 million and raised its adjusted EPS view to $1.05 from $0.98. Stifel increased its top-line projection to $525 million, up 2.5%, and boosted its EPS forecast to $0.99 from $0.91. Baird followed suit, citing stronger retail sell-through trends for Simply Good Foods bars and powders, nudging its gross margin estimate to 38.5% from 37.8%. Together, these revisions imply an average consensus revenue upgrade of 2.8% and EPS improvement of 7.1% ahead of the quarter.

Investors will hone in on four core metrics when SMPL reports Q1 results: net revenue, gross margin, operating cash flow and subscription growth. Consensus revenue is $132.4 million, reflecting 9.3% year-over-year growth driven by new product rollouts in direct-to-consumer channels. Gross margin is expected to expand by 120 basis points to 37.2%, benefiting from lower cocoa costs and supply-chain efficiencies. Subscription membership—currently at 225,000 active customers—should be up 15% sequentially, a gauge of recurring revenue stability. Finally, free cash flow is forecast at $18 million, roughly matching last year’s Q1 level despite incremental marketing spend behind the latest bar launches.