Quilter: Falling UK vacancies highlight hiring challenges ahead of Budget
SPY•UK vacancies fell by 21,000 to 691,000 in July-September, while payroll employment was down 66,000 year over year in early September. Quilter said the labor market showed tentative stabilization but remained fragile ahead of the Budget and the Bank of England’s November decision.
1. Labor market signals
Vacancies fell by 21,000 to 691,000 in July-September, and smaller businesses reported that higher labor costs may be restraining recruitment. Early September estimates showed payroll employment down 66,000 year over year but up 13,000 from August.
2. Pay and policy outlook
Unemployment fell to 4.7% in the three months to August, while regular pay growth was 3.7%. Quilter said moderating wage growth was unlikely to enable rate cuts, leaving the Bank of England balancing employment weakness against inflation risks before its November decision.
