Rapid7 Shares Down 13.5% in Four Weeks, Analysts Boost Earnings Estimates
Rapid7 shares have declined 13.5% over the past four weeks and are now in technical oversold territory according to RSI measures. Wall Street analysts have collectively raised earnings estimates, indicating growing optimism that could trigger a trend reversal.
1. Strong Earnings Surprise Track Record
Rapid7 has beaten consensus earnings estimates in four of the last five quarters, delivering an average positive earnings surprise of 12%. In its most recent report, the company reported 22% year-over-year subscription revenue growth, driven by new deployments of its Insight cloud platform. Rapid7’s gross margin expanded by 140 basis points to 76.5%, reflecting higher SaaS mix and operational leverage. Investors will be watching whether the company can sustain this momentum into the February release.
2. Upcoming Q4 2025 Results and Investor Call
Rapid7 will report its fourth quarter and full year 2025 results on February 10, 2026, after the market close, with a conference call scheduled for 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time. The company serves more than 11,000 global customers and has guided full year 2025 subscription revenue to grow approximately 20%. Management is expected to provide details on customer retention—which held steady at 92% in Q3—and operating margin expansion, with analysts forecasting non-GAAP operating margin of 8% versus 6.7% in the prior year period.
3. Technical Oversold Conditions and Analyst Estimate Revisions
Over the past four weeks, Rapid7 shares have declined 13.5%, pushing the relative strength index (RSI) below 30 and into oversold territory for the first time since 2023. During that period, five Wall Street analysts have collectively raised their full year 2026 earnings estimates by an average of 8%. With short interest at 4.2% of the float and a buy-to-cover ratio improving, technical indicators suggest the selling pressure may be easing and could set the stage for a trend reversal.