Raymond James Raises Oscar Health to Outperform, $18 Target After 2026 Guidance
Oscar Health reported a Q4 loss of $1.24 per share on $2.81 billion revenue, missing estimates of an $0.89 loss and $3.12 billion despite 17% year-over-year growth. It guided 2026 revenue of $18.7–19.0 billion versus Street’s $12.565 billion estimate and was upgraded to Outperform with an $18 price target.
1. Q4 Earnings and Revenue Miss
Oscar Health posted a fourth-quarter loss of $1.24 per share on revenue of $2.81 billion, falling short of analyst forecasts of an $0.89 loss and $3.12 billion in revenue. The 17% year-over-year increase in top-line growth failed to offset the wider loss compared with a $0.62 loss a year earlier.
2. 2026 Financial Outlook
The company forecast 2026 revenue between $18.7 billion and $19.0 billion, far above the Street’s $12.565 billion estimate. It also expects a medical loss ratio of 82.4%–83.4% and operating earnings of $250 million to $450 million.
3. Raymond James Upgrade
Raymond James raised its rating on Oscar Health shares from Market Perform to Outperform and set an $18 price target, citing attractive valuation and improving ACA exchange margins. The firm described Oscar as the strongest operator in a challenging sector.
4. Margin Recovery Expectations
Analysts project roughly a 2% EBIT margin in 2026, expanding to 4% in 2027 as medical loss ratios improve through repricing and G&A efficiencies. The upgrade reflects confidence that uncertainty around ACA subsidies and integrity rules is largely priced into the stock.