Compared with 2022, Europe consumes less gas and uses more renewable energy.
A rapid build-out of LNG import infrastructure in Europe has given countries more options to secure supplies than in 2022, when they relied heavily on Russian pipeline gas.
However, Europe's increased dependency on LNG means it no longer has the shelter of fixed-price contracts for gas delivered by pipeline and is vulnerable to possible spikes if it needs to buy more in winter.
Europe's low gas storage has created a "very risky situation," said David Lewis, senior research analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
"If there is a very cold winter or there is an extended period of cold weather, then you might find that you have to do some sort of demand mitigation, higher prices, or else European markets would run out of gas," he added.
EU storage facilities can hold just over most 102 billion cubic metres of gas, and withdrawals cover up to 30% of consumption in a normal winter.
A Commission spokesperson said the EU's latest assessment was that the 80% storage-filling target "is sufficient to secure winter supply and it is technically achievable".
But analysts are doubtful. Forecasts seen by Reuters range from a 67-76% peak in pre-winter storage levels.
To reach even those lower levels, European buyers will have to bid higher prices for LNG cargoes to out-compete buyers in Asia, who need to replace their usual deliveries via the Strait of Hormuz.
The Hormuz disruption increased competition for LNG globally and pushed up prices, putting the market deeper into "backwardation", whereby near-term gas costs more than winter gas.
Buying gas now to store and sell later thus makes little economic sense.
"There is zero financial incentive to fill storage from market prices right now," said Jacob Mandel, research lead at Aurora Energy Research.
Filling Europe's stock to 80% before winter would require storage injections to rise to near-record rates only achievable through government intervention, Mandel said.
There is little appetite for the latter and in addition, EU policymakers are also sticking to an upcoming ban on Russian LNG imports, which applies in full from the end of this year and is intended to cut off revenues funding Moscow's war with Ukraine.
Whatever the final price level, it will ultimately be passed on to households and industries.
"It will mean higher energy bills for this winter and also for the next winter,” Energy Aspect’s senior analyst Erisa Pasko said.
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