Republic Services Targets $17.05–17.15B 2026 Revenue, $5.5B EBITDA with Pricing Strength
Republic Services posted 2025 revenue growth of 3.5%, adjusted EBITDA up nearly 7% with 90 basis points of margin expansion, driving adjusted EPS of $7.02 and $2.43B in free cash flow. It guided 2026 revenue of $17.05–17.15B, adjusted EBITDA $5.475–5.525B and EPS $7.20–7.28 despite forecasting a 1% organic volume decline.
1. Q4 Pricing and Volume Trends
CFO reported core price increases of 5.8% on total revenue and 7.1% on related revenue in Q4, led by 8.7% open market pricing and 4.6% restricted pricing. Small container pricing rose 8.8%, large container 7.4% and residential 6.7%, offsetting a 1.2% drop in related volumes, including a 3.8% decline in large container and 3% in residential.
2. 2025 Financial Performance
The company achieved 3.5% revenue growth, nearly 7% rise in adjusted EBITDA and 90 basis points of margin expansion, delivering adjusted EPS of $7.02. Adjusted free cash flow grew over 11% to $2.43B with a free cash flow conversion rate of 45.8%, while net leverage stood at 2.6x on $13.7B debt and $2B liquidity.
3. 2026 Outlook and Guidance
Management expects 2026 revenue of $17.05–17.15B, adjusted EBITDA of $5.475–5.525B and EPS of $7.20–7.28, assuming roughly 1% organic volume decline and baseline $115 per ton commodity prices. Net interest expense is projected at $575–585M and contributions from recent acquisitions are forecast to add about 70 basis points to growth.
4. Acquisitions and Sustainability Investments
Republic invested $1.1B in acquisitions in 2025 and returned $1.6B to shareholders, including $854M in buybacks, and plans $1B in deals for 2026, with over $400M already closed. Polymer Centers added $45M revenue and $10M EBITDA in 2025 and is expected to contribute another $30M revenue and $10M EBITDA in 2026, while RNG projects should deliver $10M incremental EBITDA next year on a path to $120M full run rate.