Eli Lilly’s fourth-quarter top line is poised for a substantial boost as Mounjaro and Zepbound continue their rapid global rollout. Management has indicated that supply constraints eased in the final months of 2025, enabling unit shipments to rise by more than 60% sequentially. Analysts project that Mounjaro will contribute approximately $6.8 billion and Zepbound around $3.5 billion to Q4 sales, together accounting for nearly 65% of the company’s total quarterly revenue. These gains are expected to offset modest price concessions implemented in several European markets, where average realized price per dose fell by roughly 3% year-over-year but volume surged by over 150%.

The Food and Drug Administration’s decision to push back its review of Lilly’s oral GLP-1 candidate, orforglipron, from year-end to mid-2026 shifts the timeline for what could become the company’s first non-injectable weight-loss therapy. Regulatory filings now target a second-quarter action date, following a two-month extra safety assessment cited by FDA reviewers. While this delay may defer initial US sales that analysts had forecast at $800 million for 2026, it also underscores the agency’s commitment to thorough evaluation—potentially smoothing the path for later market entries in Canada and Europe, where submissions are under review.

In December, Lilly reported that participants receiving a 12-milligram dose of retatrutide lost an average of 28.7% body weight at 68 weeks, outperforming the 26.6% reduction seen with tirzepatide in a 2023 comparator study. Notably, 12.5% of trial subjects with coexisting knee osteoarthritis experienced complete resolution of joint pain by study end. This unexpected analgesic effect has prompted investors to model additional indications—potentially osteoarthritis and chronic pain—in the mid- to late-2020s. Consensus forecasts now assign retatrutide peak annual sales between $5 billion and $7 billion, assuming approval for both weight management and pain relief indications.