Kalshi Traders Boost Rick Rieder Fed Chair Odds to 33% After Trump Praise

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Traders on the Kalshi predictions market have raised the odds of BlackRock fixed income chief Rick Rieder being nominated Federal Reserve chair to 33%, roughly doubling his chances since the start of the week. President Donald Trump praised Rieder as “very impressive” following a recent meeting, fueling the surge in nomination probabilities.

1. Rieder Emerges as Leading Fed Chair Contender

BlackRock’s fixed income chief Rick Rieder saw his odds of being nominated Federal Reserve chair rise to 33% on the Kalshi predictions market after President Donald Trump described him as “very impressive.” This marks a twofold increase from the start of the week, when traders placed Rieder’s chances at roughly 16%. Trump’s comments followed a meeting between the two, and in a CNBC interview the president noted the final candidate field has narrowed from 11 down to “maybe one.” Rieder, who has managed over $200 billion in core fixed income strategies at BlackRock, is widely recognized for his macroeconomic forecasts and could bring deep market experience to the Fed’s leadership role when Jerome Powell’s term expires in May.

2. Larry Fink Dismisses Notion of an AI Bubble

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink stated he “sincerely believes” there is no artificial intelligence bubble, countering widespread investor concerns about overheated valuations in AI-related stocks. Speaking on Bloomberg Television, Fink highlighted that BlackRock’s research team has identified substantial revenue growth potentials for AI applications across sectors including healthcare, financial services and industrial automation. He pointed out that less than 10% of global enterprise IT budgets are currently allocated to AI, suggesting ample room for expansion. Fink’s comments underscore BlackRock’s conviction that AI represents a long-term structural shift rather than a short-lived market trend.

Sources

YCB