Rieder's Fed Chair Odds Double to 33% After Trump Praise; Fink Warns AI Spending Benefits Big Players
BlackRock fixed income head Rick Rieder's Fed chair nomination odds doubled to 33% on Kalshi after President Trump's praise. CEO Larry Fink said there is no AI bubble and warned AI spending favors larger firms like BlackRock.
1. Rieder Odds Rise for Fed Chair Position
BlackRock’s senior managing director Rick Rieder has seen his market-implied probability of being nominated as Federal Reserve chair jump to 33%, according to Kalshi’s prediction market—roughly double the 16% level recorded at the start of the week. President Donald Trump described Rieder as “very impressive” in a CNBC interview from Davos, signaling that the 11-candidate field has been winnowed “down to maybe one.” Rieder, who oversees over $200 billion in fixed income assets at BlackRock, is now widely viewed as a front-runner to succeed Jerome Powell when his term concludes in May.
2. Fink Says No AI Bubble in Sight
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink told Bloomberg Television at the World Economic Forum in Davos that he “sincerely believes” there is no artificial intelligence bubble. Citing BlackRock’s own research, Fink noted that global AI infrastructure spending is projected to reach $300 billion this year—less than 0.4% of the $9 trillion in assets under management the firm oversees—arguing that these investments remain disciplined and focused on productivity gains rather than speculative excess.
3. AI Spending Tilt Favors Large Asset Managers
During a separate Davos session, Fink warned that the surge in AI expenditures is disproportionately benefiting large technology incumbents and their backers. BlackRock analysis shows that 75% of global AI infrastructure contracts signed in the past 12 months are concentrated among the top five cloud providers, and roughly 60% of venture capital directed at AI-focused start-ups in 2023 came from just three institutional investors—underscoring widening barriers to entry for smaller firms and potential concentration risks within BlackRock’s passive and active portfolios.
4. BlackRock Leadership on Geopolitics and Inflation
Vice Chairman Philipp Hildebrand outlined BlackRock’s view on the shifting world order, Europe’s strategic role and AI’s impact on inflation in an on-camera interview at Davos. He highlighted that European governments have committed over €150 billion in AI research funding since 2021 to offset geopolitical competition and warned that accelerated adoption of machine learning tools could add 20 to 30 basis points to headline inflation by raising demand for specialized semiconductors and data center capacity.