Over the first three quarters of 2025, Rigetti Computing generated just $5.2 million in revenue, a 39 percent decline versus the same period in 2024. In October 2025 the company announced two system sales expected to bring in $5.7 million, but those contracts will not be recognized until the first half of 2026. As a result, the forthcoming Q4 2025 report—due in March—will not reflect these orders, leaving full‐year revenue depressed and obscuring any year-end recovery for investors.

Analysts currently expect Rigetti to report roughly $7.6 million in Q4 2025 revenue, and to reduce its net loss per share to approximately $0.03. Given the ongoing revenue decline and the lack of bookings in the quarter, the company is poised to miss on both metrics. Such dual misses would likely trigger renewed selling pressure, weakening market sentiment at the start of 2026.

While Rigetti systems lead in processing speed, they lag peers on two-qubit gate fidelity, achieving 99.5 percent versus the 99.9 percent threshold seen as necessary for robust error correction. The company also failed to advance to Stage B of DARPA’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative—raising questions about its technology roadmap—and delayed its 108-qubit Cepheus-1-108Q rollout to address persistent error-rate issues. These setbacks underscore ongoing engineering challenges that could widen the gap with competitors.

Earlier this year Rigetti secured an $8.4 million order from India’s Centre for Development of Advanced Computing for a new quantum system, prompting a handful of buy-side upgrades. However, even with this contract, full-year revenue projections remain under $7 million, and most sell-side forecasts have profitability only by 2030 at the earliest. The small size of the recent order relative to the company’s $7.7 billion market valuation suggests upside remains constrained without a broader ramp in system deployments.