Over the first three quarters of 2025, Rigetti Computing generated just $5.2 million in revenue, a 39% decline compared with the same period in 2024. In October, the company announced two system sales that would together produce $5.7 million in additional revenue, but accounting rules require it to defer those amounts until the first half of 2026. As a result, when Rigetti reports Q4 2025 results in March, it is likely to miss consensus estimates of $7.6 million in revenue and fall short of expectations for a halving of its net loss to $0.03 per share. Sustained top‐line weakness and lower earnings could pressure investor sentiment further.

Rigetti’s systems are recognized for high processing speeds, yet their two‐qubit gate fidelity stands at 99.5%, below the 99.9% threshold favored for practical error correction and trailing competitors’ performance. The company also failed to advance to Stage B of DARPA’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative, indicating technology readiness concerns. To address error rates, Rigetti postponed the launch of its new Cepheus-1-108Q quantum processor, signaling potential setbacks in its product roadmap.

In late January, Rigetti secured an $8.4 million order from India’s Centre for Development of Advanced Computing for a 108-qubit system, prompting upbeat commentary from several sell-side analysts. One boutique firm highlighted the firm’s modular qubit scaling approach, while another lifted its rating following the C-DAC award. Nevertheless, consensus estimates project sustained losses through 2026 and no path to profitability before 2030, making the company’s lofty valuation difficult to justify without clearer evidence of margin improvement.