Rio Tinto Neutral Rated as Iron Ore Stocks Hit 163MT and Cash Costs $23.80
Chinese port iron ore inventories reached 163 million tonnes, up 19 million year-on-year and the highest in over three years, while iron ore prices rebounded to $105 per tonne from $96. UBS maintained a Neutral rating on Rio Tinto, citing its $23.80 C1 cash cost per tonne, $5 above peers.
1. Chinese Port Inventories Surge
Chinese port iron ore inventories climbed to approximately 163 million tonnes, up 19 million year-on-year and the highest level in over three years. Iron ore prices have recovered to around $105 per tonne after dipping to $96 during the Chinese New Year period.
2. UBS Maintains Neutral Rating on Rio Tinto
UBS continues to rate Rio Tinto as Neutral, noting its Pilbara EBITDA per tonne improved by $2 in H2 2025 but highlighting a C1 cash cost of $23.80 per tonne, roughly $5 above BHP and Fortescue. The brokerage sees this cost disadvantage as a key vulnerability for the new management team.
3. Copper Futures Rally and Rio Tinto ADRs
Copper futures have held above $5.90 per pound driven by supply disruptions and AI-driven demand, with J.P. Morgan forecasting a 330,000 metric ton deficit in 2026. Rio Tinto ADRs have gained approximately 12.2% year-to-date, reflecting broader strength in copper-linked equities.