Risk of rise in key US interest rate remains after recent fall
TLT•The 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen for four weeks after reaching a 24-year high of 5.3645% on October 7, but remains above its rising 20-week moving average near 4.81%. A sustained break below that level could open support at 4.75% to 4.68%; a renewed rise could meet resistance near 5.07%.
1. Yield remains above support
The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 5.3645% on October 7, up from 3.9620% just before the Iran war began. After four weeks of declines, it remains above the rising 20-week moving average near 4.81%, which has acted as support several times in 2026.
2. Key levels to watch
A sustained move below 4.81% could put support at 4.75% to 4.68%, then around 4.62%, in focus. Further support may emerge at 4.50% to 4.40%, which includes the upper edge of a symmetrical triangle pattern and the 20-month moving average.
3. Resistance if yields rise
If the yield turns higher, analysts will watch resistance near 5.07%, then 5.16% to 5.18% and the October 7 peak. A move above that high could put 5.48% to 5.52% in focus, followed by the 50-year moving average near 5.65%.
