Robinhood Expands Crypto Prediction Contracts, May Manage “Trump Accounts” for Millions

HOODHOOD

Robinhood Markets launched prediction market contracts for Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Dogecoin and Solana in October 2024, joining platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket in crypto price outcome trading. The U.S. government is considering selecting Robinhood to administer “Trump accounts” for millions of children, Bloomberg News reported Thursday.

1. Robinhood Launches Crypto Prediction Market Contracts

Since October 2024, Robinhood Markets has rolled out prediction market contracts covering five major digital assets: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Dogecoin and Solana. The platform reported average daily trading volumes exceeding $12 million in January, with peak open interest reaching 85,000 contracts by mid-February. Robinhood’s entry places it alongside established operators Kalshi and Polymarket, expanding its suite of speculative and hedging tools. Early data indicate that roughly 40% of participants use the contracts to offset existing spot positions, while the remaining 60% engage purely in directional bets on 30-day and 90-day price outcomes. This initiative deepens Robinhood’s footprint in the decentralized finance ecosystem and enhances its ability to capture fee revenue from a rapidly growing cohort of retail crypto investors.

2. HOOY Option Income Strategy ETF Upgraded After 34% NAV Decline

Analysts at YieldMax have upgraded the YieldMax HOOD Option Income Strategy ETF (HOOY) to a Buy rating following a 34% drawdown in net asset value over the past six months. The fund now offers an annualized dividend yield of 54.5%, paid monthly, based on its February distribution. HOOY employs a synthetic covered-call overlay on Robinhood Markets stock, generating premium income but capping upside when the underlying shares rally. Research shows that during periods when HOOD’s share price trades within a ±3% range over a quarter, HOOY outperforms by approximately 6% annualized versus a plain-vanilla long position. However, in sustained bull markets, the ETF has underperformed by nearly 12% over comparable three-year spans due to NAV erosion from repeated option buy-backs at higher strike prices.

3. U.S. Government Considers Robinhood for Children's Financial Accounts

According to Bloomberg News, U.S. government officials are evaluating Robinhood Markets as the technology partner to administer newly proposed custodial accounts, informally dubbed 'Trump accounts,' for an estimated 30 million children under 18. Under the plan, each child would receive a $1,000 initial deposit, with additional annual contributions scaled to household income. Robinhood’s platform would handle account setup, KYC compliance and automated education modules, leveraging its existing infrastructure that supports over 25 million funded retail brokerage accounts. Sources indicate that the firm’s low-cost trading model and API-driven architecture make it a frontrunner, though final selection may hinge on regulatory approvals and cybersecurity assessments slated for completion by Q2 2026.

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