Robinhood off 50% since October as Q4 crypto revenue plunges 38%
Robinhood stock has fallen nearly 50% from its October 2025 high as Q4 2025 revenue missed estimates at $1.28 billion (+27% yoy vs $1.32 billion est) and crypto transaction revenue tumbled 38% yoy to $221 million. Its near-perfect correlation with bitcoin increases volatility risks despite EPS of $0.66 beating forecasts.
1. Q4 2025 Earnings Miss and Crypto Revenue Drop
Robinhood reported Q4 2025 revenue of $1.28 billion, up 27% yoy but missing the $1.32 billion estimate. Crypto transaction revenue plunged 38% yoy to $221 million, while EPS of $0.66 beat forecasts by $0.03 due to a 47-cent tax benefit.
2. Stock Plunge and Bitcoin Correlation
Following the earnings release, shares plunged about 9% the next day and have now fallen nearly 50% from their October 2025 high. The stock’s price movements now mirror bitcoin almost exactly, amplifying exposure to crypto market swings.
3. Full-Year Financials and 2026 Outlook
In 2025, full-year revenue rose 52% while adjusted operating expenses and share-based compensation grew 22%, boosting the EBITDA margin to 56.4%, an 800-basis-point increase. Net deposits climbed 35%, and management targets over 20% deposit growth in 2026, expecting revenue growth to outpace expense increases.