Cboe Introduces Daily S&P 500 Prediction Market Under XSPBW, XSPBX
HOOD•Cboe launched Cboe Predicts, a daily S&P 500 index prediction market trading under tickers XSPBW and XSPBX via Interactive Brokers. This intensifies competition as Robinhood expands into prediction markets, which could pressure its derivatives revenue and trading volumes.
1. Cboe Predicts Launch
Cboe Global Markets has introduced Cboe Predicts, a platform where traders wager on whether the S&P 500 index will finish above a set level each day. The products, trading under XSPBW (yes) and XSPBX (no), are accessible through Interactive Brokers and settle at market close.
2. Competitive Landscape
Prediction markets are growing with privately held Polymarket and Kalshi leading, while major trading firms including Coinbase and Robinhood develop similar offerings. This wider adoption reflects rising demand for binary outcome trading on equity benchmarks.
3. Implications for Robinhood
Robinhood's entry into prediction markets aims to diversify from commission-free stock and options trading, but faces pressure from established exchanges and dedicated platforms. Intensified competition may impact Robinhood's derivatives revenue and user engagement metrics.
