Robinhood Shares Plunge 12% After Q4 Revenue Miss, Prediction Market Growth
Robinhood's Q4 revenue missed estimates as crypto trading, which contributed 17% of total sales, declined and shares fell 12% to $75.15. Cantor Fitzgerald kept an Overweight rating with a $310 target, citing prediction market expansion—3.5 billion January contracts—and early crypto volume stabilization.
1. Q4 Results and Share Reaction
Robinhood reported Q4 revenue that fell short of analyst expectations, driven by weaker crypto trading which accounted for 17% of total revenue. Shares dropped 12.21% to $75.15 following the miss, extending a 35.1% year-to-date decline in volatile trading conditions.
2. Cantor Fitzgerald Maintains Overweight Rating
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Ramsey El-Assal maintained an Overweight rating with a $310 price target, attributing the revenue miss to natural market cyclicality rather than core business weakness and highlighting multiple growth levers in product expansion and new markets.
3. Prediction Market and Crypto Metrics
Robinhood achieved an all-time-high 3.5 billion prediction market contracts trading in January, while preliminary data show crypto volumes stabilizing after a slump. The firm views these trends as key to supporting transaction-based revenues amid broader market headwinds.
4. Needham Analyst Sees Future Catalysts
Needham’s John Todaro reiterated a Buy rating but lowered his price target from $135 to $100, forecasting weaker crypto and options volumes over the next two quarters. He identified March Madness, the FIFA World Cup and U.S. elections as potential catalysts for further prediction market growth.