Roche’s CT-388 Achieves 22.5% Weight Loss, Phase 3 Launch Set This Quarter

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Genentech’s Phase 2 trial of Roche’s dual GLP-1/GIP agonist CT-388 achieved placebo-adjusted mean weight loss of 22.5% over 48 weeks, on par with Wegovy and Zepbound. Roche plans to initiate Phase 3 this quarter (primary completion by 2028), adding late-stage obesity program optionality that could boost future sales and valuation.

1. Roche Delivers Robust 2025 Financial Results

Roche reported full-year group sales of CHF 61.5 billion, up 7% at constant exchange rates, underpinned by strong performances in both Pharmaceuticals and Diagnostics. Core earnings per share rose 11% at CER to CHF 19.46, driven by an 8% sales increase in the fourth quarter. The Pharmaceuticals Division contributed CHF 47.7 billion in sales (up 9% CER), led by key products such as Phesgo, Xolair and Ocrevus, while core operating profit climbed 13%, benefitting from operational efficiencies and lower impairment charges compared with the previous year.

2. Obesity and Cardiovascular Pipeline Gain Traction

Roche’s late-stage pipeline made notable advances, positioning the company to capture market share in obesity and cardiovascular indications. Phase 2 data for CT-388, a dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist, demonstrated a mean weight reduction of 22.5% over 48 weeks, matching leading peers in the GLP-1 obesity market. Additionally, positive cardiovascular readouts for an investigational PCSK9 inhibitor showed LDL-C reductions exceeding 60%, bolstering Roche’s prospects of becoming a third major player alongside established competitors.

3. Confident 2026 Guidance and Enhanced Dividend

Management has guided to mid-single-digit group sales growth and high-single-digit core EPS growth at constant currencies for 2026, reflecting confidence in both in-market franchise resilience and upcoming launches. The company plans to increase its dividend to CHF 9.80 per share, supported by a healthy debt-to-equity ratio of 1.21 and a current ratio of 1.29. Roche’s outlook balances sustained investment in R&D with shareholder returns, underpinned by a pipeline expected to deliver multiple launches through the end of the decade.

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