Despite a partial engine anomaly during last week’s Neutron hot-fire test, more than two dozen Wall Street analysts have maintained buy or outperform ratings on Rocket Lab. The company’s shares slipped nearly 20% from their January peak, closing Monday roughly that amount below a recent all-time high, but analysts cite a ten-launch manifest secured through 2027 and record backlog as reasons to stay positive. Several firms increased their five-year revenue forecasts for the private Neutron vehicle by an average of 25%, emphasizing the impact of upcoming commercial crew and national security missions.

In a deal signed on January 20, Rocket Lab secured a multi-year U.S. Department of Defense contract worth $250 million to deliver responsive small-sat payloads aboard Electron and Neutron rockets. This award marks the company’s largest defense engagement to date and adds 15 missions to its existing schedule. Executives disclosed that half of the contract’s value is allocated to infrastructure upgrades at the Launch Complex 2 facility in Virginia, positioning Rocket Lab as a critical supplier for rapid launch demands through 2029.

Rocket Lab’s future performance now depends heavily on Neutron’s first orbital test planned for late 2026. Management forecasts capital expenditures will rise by 40% this year as they complete engine production lines and expand manufacturing capacity in New Zealand. Meanwhile, Electron operations continue to generate positive cash flow, having flown six times since October with a 100% success rate. Investors are watching closely to see if Neutron can replicate that reliability, with breakeven on the new vehicle expected after 12 orbital flights.