Rocket Lab began 2026 on a high after winning an $816 million task order from the U.S. Space Force in December. The award covers launches through 2028 under the National Security Space Launch Phase 2 program and secures a launch cadence of at least six Electron missions per year. Following the announcement, Morgan Stanley upgraded Rocket Lab to Overweight and set a $105 price target, while Bank of America more than doubled its valuation forecast to $120, citing improved backlog visibility and expected margin expansion in 2027.

Despite Rocket Lab’s strong award pipeline, shares have underperformed peers in early 2026 as investors reallocate capital ahead of a potential SpaceX IPO valued near $1.5 trillion. Over the past 30 days, most listed launch and hardware providers have suffered double-digit declines; Electron-focused firms like Rocket Lab experienced a 15% pullback as liquidity was reserved for Musk’s rumored debut. AST SpaceMobile bucked the trend with modest gains tied to phone-satellite milestones, but broad launch specialists absorbed the bulk of the sell-off.

Analysts expect Rocket Lab to report Q4 revenue of $48 million, driven by a mix weighted roughly 70% toward its Space Systems segment, which carries higher margins than launch services. While recent missions have demonstrated improved turnaround times for Electron, a Stage 1 tank rupture in January raises schedule risk for the inaugural Neutron launch. Even if Q4 sales and adjusted EPS beat consensus by 5%, management’s comments on developmental pacing and capital expenditure for Neutron could dominate post-earnings moves.

Investors are watching Neutron closely: successful qualification would transition Rocket Lab from an expendable to a partially reusable launch provider and unlock projected annual revenue of $500 million to $700 million by 2030. However, the January tank failure introduces uncertainty around the mid-year debut, potentially delaying cash flows and forcing analysts to revise 2027 guidance downward. As a result, the valuation premium embedded in Rocket Lab’s stock hinges on clear milestones in Neutron’s test campaign and a clear timeline for reusability demonstrations.