China, which is on track to lose its title of world's largest LNG buyer to Japan this year, is continuing to cut back on LNG imports, with Kpler estimating September arrivals at 4.32 million tons, down from 5.20 million in August and 5.32 million in September last year.
While China continues to take long-term cargoes on fixed or oil-linked prices, the current spot price is about double the level that allows imports to remain profitable.
India, Asia's fourth-largest LNG buyer, is also showing signs of price stress, with September imports forecast to drop to 1.86 million tons, the lowest since March and down from 2.09 million tons in September last year.
Neighbouring Pakistan is slated to receive only 120,000 tons in September, down from 490,000 tons in the same month last year.
The overall dynamic in the global LNG market is largely a repeat of the last crisis in 2022, sparked by the loss of Russian pipeline gas into Europe after Moscow invaded Ukraine in February of that year.
Spot prices in Asia hit a record high of $70.50 per mmBtu in August 2022, and while that was a brief spike, they remained above $20 until the middle of January 2023.
Asia's imports of LNG dropped in both 2022 and 2023 from 2021 levels and didn't recover until 2024, when they hit a record high of 287.16 million tons.
In contrast, Europe's LNG imports surged in 2022, reaching a then-record of 124.54 million tons, up 59% from 2021.
The ongoing absence of Russian pipeline gas has kept Europe's LNG imports elevated, with a fresh peak of 125.20 million tons set in 2025.
But 2026 is set to be a new record year, with imports of 117.01 million tons already assessed by Kpler, a figure that will rise in the last quarter.
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