Russia Forecasts February Oil Revenue Drop to 410 Billion Roubles as Tensions Rise
Russian oil and gas revenue is seen halving to 410 billion roubles in February, half 2025 levels, as stronger rouble and lower Brent prices cut export income. Geopolitical strains—from Iran raising Strait of Hormuz supply risks, Hungary’s threat to cut Ukrainian gas exports, and stalled Venezuelan rig deployment—are intensifying crude volatility.
1. Russia's Oil Revenue Decline
In February, state oil and gas revenue is projected at 410 billion roubles, about half the amount recorded in the same month of 2025. The decline reflects a stronger rouble and a drop in Brent prices, which together are reducing export income and government oil-sector funding.
2. Iran Standoff and Supply Risks
Escalating tensions with Iran have heightened fears of disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit route for roughly 20% of global crude shipments. Traders are increasingly pricing in potential chokepoint closures, driving up volatility in Brent futures.
3. Hungary's Energy Export Threat
Hungary’s government has warned it may suspend power and gas exports to Ukraine unless Russian oil flows resume via the Druzhba pipeline. Such a move could tighten Central European gas supplies ahead of peak demand in spring.
4. Venezuelan Rig Deployment
A large drilling rig named Alula recently arrived from China to the shallow waters of Lake Maracaibo. This marks the first significant equipment mobilization under U.S. sanctions and could signal increased Venezuelan output if drilling operations commence successfully.