RXO Sees 16.5% Q1 Spot Rate Surge, Projects Flat Q2 Profits
RXO’s truckload spot rate index jumped 16.5% year-over-year in Q1, marking the highest quarterly growth since the third quarter of 2021, with contract rates rising 2.4% in the same period. The company now expects Q2 gross profit per load to at least match April levels due to sustained spot rate momentum.
1. Q1 Spot Rate Surge
RXO’s truckload spot rate index climbed 16.5% year-over-year in the first quarter, the strongest quarterly growth since Q3 2021. This surge reflects capacity attrition from stricter driver-pool regulations and record-high tender rejection levels during a typically slow shipping period.
2. Contract Rate Trends
Contract rates increased 2.4% year-over-year in Q1 as elevated spot rates strengthened shippers’ negotiating positions. Public carriers are now forecasting mid- to high-single-digit contract rate gains, with some planning double-digit hikes for transactional customers that leaned on spot pricing.
3. Q2 Profit Outlook
RXO updated its outlook to expect second-quarter gross profit per load to be at least flat with April, reversing an earlier forecast of a May decline. Management attributes the optimistic guidance to continued spot rate momentum and persistent tightness in truckload capacity heading into summer.