Deutsche Bank Maintains Buy, Highlights 60.9% Gain and 207M Passenger Forecast
Deutsche Bank maintained its Buy rating for Ryanair, highlighting a 60.9% share gain over the past year. It cited ongoing debt reduction, fleet upgrades and upward revisions to 2025–26 earnings forecasts alongside a traffic projection exceeding 207 million passengers in fiscal 2026.
1. Musk and O’Leary Clash Over In-Flight Wi-Fi Costs
Elon Musk publicly criticized Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary on Friday, calling him an "utter idiot" and suggesting he should be removed from his position after O’Leary ruled out installing Musk’s Starlink internet service on Ryanair aircraft. The spat began when O’Leary argued that the high per-flight cost of Starlink connectivity—estimated at several thousand dollars per sector—would force the carrier to raise fares, undermining its low-cost business model. Musk countered that Starlink could be offered at a fraction of that price, citing recent bulk-deployment agreements with other airlines that reduced costs by up to 40%. The disagreement underscores broader industry debates over premium ancillary revenue opportunities versus Ryanair’s focus on maintaining rock-bottom fares.
2. Deutsche Bank Reaffirms Buy Rating After Strong Share Performance
On January 15, 2026, Deutsche Bank maintained its Buy recommendation for Ryanair, highlighting a 60.9% share gain over the past 12 months—more than quadruple the sector average. The broker noted that strategic fleet modernization, including the introduction of 50 next-generation Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, has driven unit cost reductions of 8% year-on-year. Deutsche Bank also cited a debt-to-EBITDA ratio that fell below 2.5x for the first time in three years, signaling improved balance-sheet resilience and supporting upward revisions to 2025 and 2026 earnings estimates.
3. Passenger Traffic Forecasts Support Long-Term Growth
Ryanair forecasts passenger numbers to exceed 207 million in fiscal 2026, up from 198 million this year, buoyed by strong booking momentum across European leisure markets and the ramp-up of new base openings in Spain and Italy. Management expects ancillary revenues per passenger to rise by 5% as digital initiatives—such as in-app seat selection and priority boarding upsells—gain traction. With net debt down by €400 million since last summer and free cash flow set to reach €2.3 billion this fiscal year, Ryanair is positioned to self-fund further aircraft deliveries and maintain its leading cost position.