SanDisk Shares Rally 6% After Seagate Beat and Q2 Guidance

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SanDisk shares jumped nearly 6% after Seagate beat Q2 estimates on $2.83B revenue and $3.11 EPS, highlighting robust AI-driven NAND demand. The company guides Q2 revenue of $2.55–$2.65B with 41–43% gross margins and EPS of $3.00–$3.40, while full-year 2026 revenue is projected to rise 42%.

1. AI-Driven NAND Demand Lifts Outlook

SanDisk is entering its second-quarter earnings report with momentum fueled by surging demand for NAND flash memory in artificial intelligence applications. Data centers handling large‐scale machine learning workloads require high‐speed, high‐capacity storage, and SanDisk’s BiCS8 and SSD product lines have seen order volumes increase by more than 40% year-over-year. The company reported that global NAND shipments stayed flat in the quarter despite supply constraints, allowing SanDisk to raise average selling prices by approximately 8%, a key factor supporting both revenue growth and margin expansion.

2. Second-Quarter Earnings Guidance Highlights

SanDisk has guided for quarterly revenue between $2.55 billion and $2.65 billion, representing growth of roughly 10–15% compared with the prior year period. Gross margins are expected to range from 41% to 43%, up from 38% in the year-ago quarter, thanks to favorable pricing dynamics. Non-GAAP operating expenses are projected at about $450 million. The company also forecasts non-GAAP earnings per share of $3.00 to $3.40, implying a potential beat relative to consensus estimates of $3.31, and reflecting a continued focus on operational efficiency and higher-margin product mix.

3. Stock Performance Since Spinoff from Western Digital

Since its February 2025 separation from Western Digital, SanDisk’s stock has risen approximately 1,725% from its post-spinoff lows, an extraordinary gain driven by AI-related storage demand. Institutional ownership has climbed, with leading advisory firms accumulating over 30,000 shares in recent months. Over the past six months alone, SanDisk has delivered a return of around 1,085%, outpacing peers in the memory and storage sector and underscoring investor confidence in its growth trajectory.

4. Analyst Projections and Long-Term Outlook

Wall Street analysts remain bullish on SanDisk, projecting full fiscal 2026 revenue growth of about 42% to $10.45 billion and a 552% jump in non-GAAP earnings compared with the prior year. Consensus estimates call for 2027 revenue to exceed $15 billion, driven by ongoing investments from hyperscale cloud providers and enterprises building AI infrastructure. The forward price-to-earnings ratio stands below 16x, which analysts argue is attractive given expected double-digit earnings growth. Potential risks include shifts in NAND supply ramp timing and customer inventory adjustments, but the prevailing view is that tight market conditions will persist through 2026.

Sources

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