Ocular Therapeutix shares surged approximately 21% in premarket trading after reports indicated that Sanofi is preparing a revised takeover offer. The French pharmaceutical group had initially approached Ocular’s board in September with a discreet proposal of $16 per share, which was rejected. At the time of the initial approach, Ocular’s market capitalization was roughly $2.2 billion. Sources cite ongoing discussions between Sanofi CEO Paul Hudson and Ocular management as they negotiate an enhanced bid that could secure Sanofi exposure to the wet age-related macular degeneration market.

Central to Sanofi’s interest is Axpaxli, Ocular’s tyrosine kinase inhibitor in late-stage development for wet AMD. Topline data from the SOL-1 study are expected in Q1 2026, followed by data from the SOL-R study in H1 2027. Positive results could position Ocular as a key player in a market projected to exceed $8 billion by 2030. Analysts note that successful phase III outcomes would materially de-risk the asset and potentially justify a takeover premium above the prior $16 bid.

Despite the premarket rally, Ocular’s technical indicators remain mixed. The shares trade 1.7% above their 20-day simple moving average but sit 0.7% below the 50-day average, signaling short-term volatility. Over the past 12 months, the stock has gained approximately 48.34% and sits closer to its 52-week high than low. The relative strength index of 39.46 falls in neutral territory, while the moving average convergence divergence remains below its signal line, indicating lingering bearish pressure and suggesting investors weigh momentum against fundamental catalysts.