Sasol slides after guidance update cuts gas output outlook on Mozambique flooding
Sasol shares fell after the company released its nine-month FY26 business performance metrics and revised guidance on April 23, 2026. The update cut gas production guidance to 5%–10% below FY25 due to Mozambique flooding and well constraints, offset partly by higher fuel sales volume guidance and lower capex.
1. What’s moving Sasol today
Sasol’s U.S.-listed ADR (SSL) traded lower after the company published its business performance metrics for the nine months ended March 31, 2026 and issued revised FY26 guidance on April 23, 2026. The most market-sensitive change was a downgrade to gas production expectations, which can pressure earnings power in an integrated energy-and-chemicals model that depends on feedstock availability and stable operations. (prnewswire.com)
2. The key guidance changes investors are reacting to
Sasol raised its FY26 fuel sales volume growth outlook to 10%–15% above FY25 (from 5%–10%) on stable Secunda operations, higher Natref volumes, and stronger demand. However, it reduced expected gas production volumes to 5%–10% below FY25 (from 0%–5% below), citing Mozambique flooding and well availability constraints at the Petroleum Production Agreement asset; it also trimmed capital expenditure guidance to R20–R22 billion (from R22–R24 billion). (prnewswire.com)
3. Operational backdrop and other moving pieces
The update highlighted that Mozambique flooding affected condensate logistics and transportation, forcing reduced gas production, and noted that ORYX GTL output was significantly lower after a shutdown tied to a gas supply disruption in early March, with restart timing uncertain. Sasol also described completing a US$750 million seven-year bond issuance at an 8.75% coupon and using proceeds to partially repurchase 2028 and 2029 bonds, extending maturities while keeping the transaction debt-neutral. (prnewswire.com)
4. What to watch next
Near-term trading is likely to stay sensitive to (1) recovery in Mozambique logistics and well availability, (2) any clarity on ORYX GTL restart timing, and (3) whether lower capex reflects true efficiencies or deferrals that could later weigh on reliability. Investors will also track how working capital evolves after recent geopolitical-related disruptions referenced in the update. (prnewswire.com)