Scotiabank Sets $30 Target as Kinder Morgan Sees Muted Reaction to 60% Gas Rally

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Scotiabank set a $30 price target for Kinder Morgan on January 23, implying roughly 1.04% upside as shares dipped 0.67% in recent trading. Natural gas futures soared above $5 per MMBtu with a 60% weekly gain driven by an Arctic cold wave, yet its stock remained subdued.

1. Record Earnings Performance

In the fourth quarter of 2025, Kinder Morgan delivered all-time high results across key metrics. Adjusted EBITDA rose 10% year-over-year, driven by strong throughput on its natural gas pipelines and contributions from the Outrigger acquisition. Net income attributable to Kinder Morgan reached $996 million, a 49% increase from the same quarter in 2024, and adjusted EPS climbed 22% to $0.45 per share. For the full year, the company reported record adjusted EBITDA of $8.4 billion (up 6% versus 2024) and adjusted net income of $2.9 billion (up 13%), underlining the strength of its fee-based contracts and take-or-pay LNG feed gas agreements.

2. Growth Outlook and Project Backlog

Management’s project backlog expanded to $10 billion at year-end, reflecting a $650 million increase during Q4. Major additions included long-term shipper-supported expansions on Florida Gas Transmission. Construction has commenced on the Trident pipeline, while FERC is set to issue final certificates for the MSX and South System 4 projects by July 31, 2026. Beyond the approved backlog, Kinder Morgan is evaluating over $10 billion in additional opportunities, with Wood Mackenzie forecasting incremental U.S. natural gas demand growth of 20 Bcf per day between 2030 and 2035.

3. Natural Gas Demand and Operational Highlights

Executive Chairman Rich Kinder stressed that LNG feed gas demand is poised to average 19.8 Bcf per day in 2026—a 19% increase from 2025’s daily average—and could exceed 34 Bcf per day by 2030. In Q4, natural gas transport volumes increased 9% year-over-year, led by higher LNG deliveries on the Tennessee Gas Pipeline, while gathering volumes jumped 19%, driven by record throughput on the Haynesville system (1.97 Bcf per day on December 24). The terminals segment maintained 99% tank utilization at key hubs, and the Jones Act fleet remained fully contracted through 2026 with near-full coverage into 2028.

4. Balance Sheet, Dividend and Capital Allocation

Kinder Morgan declared a quarterly dividend of $0.2925 per share, up 2% year-over-year, resulting in an annualized yield of approximately 4%. Net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA improved to 3.8×, down from 4.1× a year earlier, even after investing nearly $3 billion in growth projects and the Outrigger acquisition. Cash flow from operations totaled $5.92 billion in 2025, funding $3.15 billion of capex, $2.6 billion of dividends and $650 million on the acquisition while reducing net debt by $9 million. Credit rating agencies have responded with upgrades and positive outlooks, reflecting the reinforced credit profile.

Sources

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