Sea Limited Shopee Ad Revenue Soars 70% While Q1 EPS Forecasts Vary
Analyst EPS forecasts for Q1 range from $0.77 on $6.46 billion revenue to $0.96 on $6.95 billion, following four consecutive quarters of earnings misses. Shopee’s advertising revenues jumped over 70% in Q4 while 2026 guidance calls for 25% GMV growth but flat adjusted EBITDA, pressuring profit margins.
1. Divergent Q1 EPS and Revenue Forecasts
Analyst projections for Sea Limited’s Q1 2026 earnings vary sharply, with one estimate at $0.77 per share on $6.46 billion revenue and another at $0.96 per share on $6.95 billion, a 35% year-over-year revenue increase. This follows four straight quarters of missed earnings expectations, heightening scrutiny on the upcoming report.
2. Shopee Performance and Margin Pressure
Shopee’s advertising revenues surged more than 70% in Q4 2025, underscoring strong consumer engagement. However, 2026 guidance projects only 25% growth in Gross Merchandise Volume alongside flat adjusted EBITDA, signaling potential margin compression as operational costs rise.
3. Financial Health and Rising Provisions
Sea Limited holds a conservative balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.27, a current ratio of 1.58 and a trailing twelve-month P/E of 32.22. The loan book has expanded over 80%, prompting increased provisions for loan losses and adding to near-term cost pressures.