Seagate has seen its consensus earnings per share forecasts for the current fiscal year rise by 12% over the past six weeks, driven by stronger-than-expected revenue in its data center storage segment. Analysts tracked by Zacks have lifted their estimates from $3.20 to $3.58, reflecting a 7% quarter-over-quarter gain in bookings during the December quarter. This upward revision cycle has coincided with a 15% share price increase since early January, suggesting investors are rewarding the company’s renewed operational efficiency and tighter cost controls.

Backed by accelerating adoption of artificial intelligence workloads, Seagate reports that its near-term order book is nearly 100% filled through calendar 2026, up from 85% at last guidance. Management highlighted strong growth in units shipped of its high-capacity hard disk drives, which rose 22% year-over-year in the December quarter. The company forecasts revenue growth in the mid-teens percentage range for fiscal 2026 and anticipates sustained double-digit expansion through 2028, as hyperscale cloud providers continue to scale out storage infrastructure.

Seagate currently trades at roughly 30 times next-year’s earnings estimates, a valuation premium to its five-year average of 18 times. While justified by near-term margin expansion—gross profit margins have expanded 250 basis points over the past two quarters—this level exposes the stock to downside if memory supply normalizes or data center capital expenditures slow. Historical patterns suggest that a correction in HDD pricing cycles could trim gross margins by 300 to 400 basis points, potentially erasing current earnings estimate gains.