Seven weeks of war in the Middle East have begun to show up in global business surveys, with preliminary PMI readings in Germany, France, the euro zone and the UK expected to deteriorate. US PMIs, by contrast, are forecast to remain largely unchanged, underscoring uneven growth pressures while headline inflation remains elevated.

ECB chief economist Philip Lane and his Fed counterparts will integrate this new survey data alongside upcoming retail sales figures, consumer sentiment, and inflation reports when calibrating interest-rate decisions. Additional inputs include rate choices from Canada, Indonesia and other markets, highlighting a complex backdrop of persistent uncertainty.