NNPC Group CEO Bashir Ojulari confirmed that Shell Petroleum Development Company is preparing to allocate as much as $20 billion to oil and gas developments in Nigeria over the coming years. This commitment builds on nearly $7 billion that Shell and its partners have already invested in the country over the past 13 months, primarily directed toward the Bonga North and HI shallow-water gas projects. The planned outlay would position Nigeria as one of Shell’s largest capital-spend theaters globally, underlining the company’s strategy to deepen its presence in high-potential West African basins.

Shell has reached a final investment decision (FID) of approximately $5 billion on the Bonga North deep-water development, which targets peak production of over 100,000 barrels of oil per day. In parallel, the company approved an additional $2 billion for the HI/Feed shallow-water gas initiative, expected to deliver up to 350 million standard cubic feet of gas per day (about 60,000 barrels of oil equivalent) at full ramp-up. Negotiations are now underway on the adjacent Bonga South-West project, which could require nearly $10 billion in upfront capital and substantial operating expenditure over its multi-decade lifespan.

In its latest quarterly update, Shell narrowed its full-year Integrated Gas production forecast to a range of 930,000–970,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, compared with a prior outlook of 920,000–980,000 boe/d. The company also trimmed its 2026 LNG liquefaction volume guidance to between 7.5 million and 7.9 million metric tons, down from an earlier range of 7.4 million–8.0 million metric tons. These revisions reflect ongoing commissioning delays in new trains and a strategic shift to optimize cash flow amid heightened project spend.

Shell’s escalating capital deployment in Nigeria underscores management’s confidence in deep-water margins and the long-term demand trajectory for natural gas. The nearly $20 billion commitment will likely support a higher organic capital budget over the next five years, potentially offsetting shareholder returns in the near term but enhancing future free cash flow generation. Investors should monitor progress on Bonga South-West approvals, operational start-ups at Bonga North and HI, and any shifts in Shell’s global divestment or reallocation strategy as the company balances emerging-market growth with its energy-transition commitments.