Shell has raised its guidance for fourth-quarter 2025 production, forecasting average oil and gas output of approximately 3.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), a 5% increase from the same period last year. The uplift is driven by ramp-up at the Vito deepwater project in the Gulf of Mexico and full commissioning of the Rosebank field in the UK North Sea. Upstream capital expenditure for the quarter is pegged at $5.5 billion, reflecting sustained investment in low-emission production and the ongoing Western Australia gas scheme.

Despite stronger upstream volumes, Shell warns that its oil trading division will face significant headwinds as Brent crude prices have fallen by over 12% since mid-September. The company projects trading and supply earnings to decline by roughly $750 million compared with the prior quarter, driven by narrower refining margins and reduced volatility in futures markets. Trading operating cash flow for Q4 is now expected around $1.8 billion, down from $2.6 billion in Q3.