Shell expects combined oil and gas production in the fourth quarter of 2025 to rise to approximately 2.77–2.91 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), up from the prior-year range of 2.69–2.85 million boe/d. The Integrated Gas division’s output is now forecast at 930–970 thousand boe/d, tightened from the previous 920–980 thousand boe/d outlook, while upstream volumes are guided to 1.84–1.94 million boe/d, compared with 1.77–1.97 million boe/d earlier. LNG liquefaction volumes are also revised to 7.5–7.9 million metric tons, versus the prior guidance of 7.4–8.0 million metric tons.

Shell cautions that oil trading and optimisation earnings will be significantly lower in Q4 as global crude benchmarks have softened since the third quarter. The company now expects Trading & Optimisation results in the Integrated Gas segment to be broadly flat with Q3 2025 levels, reflecting narrowing margins in spot markets and reduced volatility across key trading hubs.

Refinery utilisation is projected to improve to 93–97%, up from the earlier 87–95% range, with average refining margins expected near $14 per barrel, above the $11.60 recorded in Q3. However, chemical plant utilisation of 75–79% leaves the Chemicals & Products segment on track for adjusted earnings below break-even. This follows a sharp drop in trading contributions and rising feedstock costs, prompting the company to flag significant segmental losses.

Shell continues to fortify its position in key markets through strategic alliances. The company has merged its U.K. offshore operations with Equinor into a joint venture named Adura, creating one of the North Sea’s largest producers. Separately, its Shell International Trading Middle East subsidiary secured a 15-year liquefied natural gas supply agreement with ADNOC, strengthening access to Middle Eastern gas resources and supporting long-term project returns.