Shell Raises Q2 Chemicals Margin to ~$240/Tonne as Gas Output Slumps
SHEL•Shell forecasts Q2 2026 integrated gas production of 610–650 kboe/d, down from 909 kboe/d due to Middle East conflict impacts on Qatari volumes, and upstream volumes steady at 1,750–1,850 kboe/d. Chemicals refining margin is guided at ~$20/bbl and chemicals margin at ~$240/tonne, with refinery utilisation near 100%.
1. Production Outlook
Shell forecasts Q2 integrated gas production of 610–650 kboe/d versus 909 kboe/d in Q1, reflecting reduced Qatari volumes from the Middle East conflict, while upstream production is guided at 1,750–1,850 kboe/d and marketing sales at 2,550–2,650 kb/d.
2. Margin Improvements
Indicative refining margin is raised to ~$20 per barrel from $17, and chemicals margin jumps to ~$240 per tonne from $139, supported by near‐100% refinery utilisation and 80–84% chemicals plant utilisation.
3. Cash Flow and Working Capital
Shell expects a working capital inflow of $1–6 billion in Q2 versus an $11.2 billion outflow in Q1, tax payments of $2.6–3.4 billion and volatile derivative instrument movements, reflecting unprecedented swings in commodity prices.
