Shell Sees 18% Q1 Profit Upgrade with Gas Prices Set to Jump 50–100%
Shell's Q1 update forecasts weaker gas output and liquidity pressure from the Iran conflict but highlights stronger oil trading and marketing gains, leading analysts to lift first-quarter profit estimates by 18%. Severe damage to Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG trains risks pushing global gas prices 50–100%, potentially boosting Shell's trading margins and sustaining elevated valuations.
1. Q1 Performance Outlook
Shell expects weaker gas output and tighter liquidity from the Iran conflict but reports stronger oil trading and marketing performance, prompting analysts to raise first-quarter profit forecasts by 18%.
2. Qatar LNG Disruption
Severe damage to two Ras Laffan liquefaction trains in Qatar may require full rebuilds, threatening to push global gas prices up 50–100% and bolstering margins for traders like Shell.
3. Market Implications
Elevated oil prices above $100 driven by war premiums have powered energy as the S&P’s top-performing sector in 2026, supporting sustained valuations for major producers including Shell.