Shore Capital sees UK discretionary consumer goods stocks outperforming in 2027 on improving confidence
XLY•Inflation and rates outlook
The firm forecast December 2026 UK ONS CPI at 3.75%–4.25%, driven by energy and food costs tied to volatile oil markets.
UK base rate is seen holding in a 3.75%–4.25% range, with risk of a pre-Christmas rise to 4.0%.
Living standards and housing-related demand
Real living standards are expected to stay broadly flat through 2027, with higher home energy bills a key downside risk.
Home-related goods are seen offering the most cyclical upside if housing activity recovers, though high gilt yields remain a headwind.
Shore Capital sees improving consumer sentiment
Shore Capital flagged improving UK consumer sentiment into late 2026, though it expects the clearer uplift in discretionary goods in 2027.
