Short interest in the iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLH) rose to 326,874 shares as of December 15, representing a 29.3% increase from the 252,890 shares reported on November 30. This uptick means that 0.3% of the fund’s outstanding shares are currently sold short. Given an average daily trading volume of 1,158,368 shares, the days-to-cover ratio stands at just 0.3 days, indicating that bearish positions could be closed out quickly if the fund’s price moves higher. Such a marked growth in short interest suggests that traders are positioning for potential weakness in long-duration U.S. Treasury exposure, possibly anticipating further increases in yield volatility or a shift in interest-rate expectations over the coming months.

With 2026 potentially shaping up as a pivotal year for U.S. monetary policy, TLH faces heightened duration risk due to its concentration in 10- to 20-year Treasury bonds. Despite two rate cuts implemented in 2025, the yield on 20-year Treasuries declined by only 10 basis points from year-end 2024 levels, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to long-term rate movements. Potential changes at the Federal Reserve’s helm—in particular, the appointment of a chair less committed to data-dependence—could lead to upward pressure on long-term yields. A politically responsive Fed chair might prioritize employment or fiscal stability over strict inflation targeting, prompting market participants to demand higher term premia. For TLH holders, even a modest 25-basis-point rise in the 20-year yield could translate into a roughly 4% drop in net asset value, given the ETF’s duration of approximately 15.5 years.