Siebert Financial sees strong jobs report raising Fed rate hike risks for stocks
TLT•Siebert Financial warned that October hiring of 165,000 jobs, above forecasts of 70,000, increased expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, with market-implied odds rising to the high 70s from the high 60s.
1. Hiring and rate expectations
Siebert Financial said stronger October hiring increased expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, threatening rate-sensitive stocks, bonds and the AI trade. Employers added 165,000 jobs versus forecasts of 70,000, strengthening the case for tightening at the December 8-9 meeting; market-implied hike odds settled in the high 70s, up from the high 60s before the report.
2. Wages and inflation
Annual wage growth of 3.1% lagged consumer inflation of 3.7%. Forecasts for October core CPI range from 0.2% to 0.3%, and a hotter reading could intensify pressure on long-duration technology stocks.
