Six months after the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran, the war that President Donald Trump has called a "little excursion" has become a deeply unpopular stalemate that threatens to derail his presidency.
Iran has not surrendered, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, and there is no clear path to ending the conflict that Trump once predicted would be over in four weeks.
Now, in apparent recognition that further military strikes won't force concessions from Iran, the U.S. is reverting to a campaign of economic pressure in hopes of further weakening Iran's government. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has told allies it's unlikely the U.S. will launch new attacks "for the time being."
The war was unpopular at the outset and has become more so. Trump's approval rating has fallen from 40% to 33% since the conflict began, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling, as rising gas prices have undercut his 2024 campaign promise to lower costs for Americans.
Trump, who campaigned on a promise to end wars, has argued that Iran's missile buildup and nuclear ambitions required action, but he has not persuaded most voters. Just 31% of the country approve of the conflict, according to the polling. That's a lower number than other recent U.S. conflicts at a similar stage, including the war in Afghanistan, which had approval ratings above 50% for years in Gallup polls.
Voter anger over high prices poses a problem for Trump's Republican Party before November's midterm elections, when it must defend narrow majorities in both chambers of Congress.
The conflict has also widened a rift between more isolationist Republicans, who want to see a quick end, and Republican lawmakers who believe Trump should keep military pressure on Tehran.
The U.S. and Israeli attacks triggered immediate alarm because the Strait of Hormuz – which narrows to about 21 miles (34 km) wide between Iran and Oman — carries roughly a fifth of the world's energy supplies. The disruption sent oil prices sharply higher and prompted fears of a global downturn.
The damage has been significant but less severe than many economists initially feared. The International Monetary Fund has cut its global growth forecast twice since the war began and now expects the world economy to grow by 3.0% this year, compared with its 3.3% forecast in January.
Still, the global economy has proved more resilient than during the oil shocks of the 1970s. Major economies are less energy-intensive than they were then, and strong spending and investment — including a continuing boom in artificial intelligence — have helped cushion the blow.
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