Some Middle East oil output will stay shut through next year, US EIA says
XLE•Hormuz flows seen constrained through August
The EIA now expects flows through Hormuz to be severely constrained through August after renewed attacks on vessels in recent weeks, but it assumes that shipments will start to slowly increase in September. The agency, which is the U.S. Department of Energy's statistical arm, has previously issued similar forecasts of an imminent increase in Hormuz shipments, which failed to materialize as the Iran war dragged on.
Even if most Middle East oil output and global trade recover to pre-conflict levels by early 2027, about 600,000 bpd of production from the region will be shut-in through the end of 2027, the EIA said in the August STEO.
EIA sees Middle East output disruptions lingering
Some producers in the Middle East are likely to struggle to restore oil output to pre-conflict levels by the end of 2027, even if trade patterns return to normal by early next year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday.
