Southern Copper expects its annual copper output to rise from approximately 950,000 metric tons in 2023 to over 1.5 million tons by 2034, driven by the commissioning of its Los Chancas and Tía María projects in Peru and the expansion of its Buenavista and Zapotillo operations in Mexico. Management forecasts a compound annual growth rate of 4.5% over the next decade, positioning SCCO as one of the fastest-growing copper producers globally. This trajectory reflects both brownfield expansions—adding an estimated 200,000 tons by 2027—and greenfield developments expected to contribute roughly 350,000 tons from 2028 onward.

The Los Chancas project in Peru, slated to begin commercial production in late 2026, carries an estimated capital cost of $2.5 billion and is designed to process 70,000 tons of ore per day. Tía María, which received environmental approval in early 2024, targets first concentrate by 2028 and will add approximately 120,000 tons of copper capacity annually. In Mexico, the Zapotillo expansion has advanced to the feasibility stage, with an expected $1.8 billion investment and a projected output increase of 150,000 tons per year upon startup in 2030.

Southern Copper’s board has approved a ten-year capital expenditure plan of $10 billion, with 60% allocated to Peruvian projects and the remainder to Mexican assets. The company intends to fund these investments through a combination of free cash flow—projected at $3.2 billion annually by 2026—existing liquidity, and incremental debt issuance not expected to exceed a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.0x. In 2024 alone, SCCO has earmarked $1.2 billion for project development and sustaining capital, underscoring its commitment to maintaining production momentum.

For investors, SCCO’s aggressive expansion offers exposure to copper’s role in electrification and renewable energy infrastructure, potentially boosting returns as global copper deficits widen. However, execution risks remain: community relations in Peru could delay Tía María, and permitting hurdles in Mexico may affect Zapotillo’s timeline. Additionally, fluctuations in energy costs and currency exchange rates will influence operating margins, currently estimated at 35% on a consolidated basis. Monitoring project milestones and maintaining a healthy balance sheet will be critical to sustaining the company’s growth narrative.