S&P 500 ETF Flat YTD While VIX Rises 30%, Investors Eye Tariff-Proof Stocks
The S&P 500 ETF has traded flat year-to-date while its volatility index surged nearly 30% in one month. Investors are shifting toward tariff-immune domestic businesses—Waste Management up 12% YTD on $25.2B revenue, WEC Energy up 11% with $5.27 EPS—to outpace broad-market stagnation.
1. Market Performance Review
The S&P 500 ETF has seen negligible gains year-to-date while its volatility gauge climbed almost 30% over the past month. This divergence highlights growing investor caution despite a broadly unchanged equity benchmark.
2. Tariff-Exposure Impact
Consumer sentiment sits at a recessionary 56.4 on the University of Michigan index, and markets price a 60% chance the 2026 trade deficit reaches $800 billion to $1 trillion. These concerns are driving a search for companies insulated from global tariff shifts.
3. Tariff-Proof Stock Performances
Waste Management leads with a 12% YTD gain on $25.204 billion in 2025 revenue and a 6.3% core price increase, while Republic Services posted 16.9% free cash flow growth to $2.433 billion. Welltower is up 11%, WEC Energy up 11% with $5.27 EPS, and Visa, despite $10.9 billion Q1 revenue, trails by 8.6%.
4. Implications for SPY ETF
As capital rotates into essential-service names, the S&P 500 ETF may underperform on a sectoral basis but benefit from reduced volatility in defensive holdings. Continued tariff anxiety could sustain this divergence and influence SPY’s sector weightings.