S&P 500 futures add to gains, yields drop after jobs data
SPY•U.S. stock futures rose after September payrolls increased by 29,000, below the 90,000 estimate, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell to about 5.17%. Traders raised the odds of the Fed leaving rates unchanged at its October meeting to 83%, from 72% before the report.
1. Jobs data lifts futures
E-mini S&P 500 futures rose about 1%, adding to gains of roughly 0.5% before the employment report. September payrolls increased by 29,000, compared with a 90,000 estimate, while August job growth was revised down to 133,000 from 162,000. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% from 4.1%, and wage growth was softer than forecast.
2. Yields and rate odds fall
The 10-year Treasury yield fell to around 5.17% from about 5.22% just before the report, after finishing Thursday at 5.234%. Traders put the probability of no rate change at the Fed’s October 27-28 meeting at 83%, up from 72%; the probability of a hike fell to 17% from 28%. Fed funds futures priced in about 22.2 basis points of additional tightening through the end of 2026, down from 25.5 basis points.
3. Premarket sector moves
Nearly all major S&P 500 sectors traded higher before the market opened. Technology led, with the XLK ETF up more than 1.5%, while energy was down roughly 1.5%; the regional banking ETF KRE gained about 1% and the semiconductor ETF SOXQ rose more than 2.5%.
