SpaceX Starlink to Reach 15 Million Subscribers by 2030 and Pressure Verizon
VZ•Oppenheimer projects SpaceX’s Starlink will reach 15 million US subscribers by 2030 and generate $800 billion in space revenue by 2035, exerting competitive pressure on Verizon’s network business. The note warns that satellite broadband could erode legacy carriers’ pricing power and accelerate subscriber and revenue declines for Verizon.
1. Oppenheimer Raises SpaceX Forecasts
Oppenheimer has increased its 2035 space revenue forecast for SpaceX to $800 billion from $500 billion, reflecting confidence in the growth of its Starlink satellite broadband unit. The firm also lifted its 2030 US subscriber estimate to 15 million, up from a prior projection of 10 million.
2. Starlink Subscriber Expansion
Starlink has already amassed over 10 million subscribers and is expected to entrench itself in critical applications that reduce customer churn and increase pricing power. It also aims to penetrate the half-trillion-dollar handset market by offering satellite-based smartphone alternatives.
3. Implications for Verizon
The note warns that legacy providers like Verizon may face faster subscriber losses and revenue declines as Starlink’s expanding footprint pressures both fixed-line and mobile offerings. Eroded pricing power and market share could force Verizon to accelerate strategic investments or seek new service bundles.
